Logical Fallacies Challenge (Just Skeptics Episode 8)

As advertised from episode eight of Just Skeptics podcast, this is a just-for-fun competition to see how good our skeptical listeners are with arguments. The following conversation is very slow paced and is an argument that you could conceivably see two friends having - can you spot all of their Logical Fallacies? 

If you think you can then pop your answers in the comments section (or send the Just Skeptics team an e-mail!). The best answer will win a tall glass of smug satisfaction - so read on and see how much you can spot!

E.T is probably not the explanation. (Just Skeptics Episode 8)

The Chinese UFO sightings were discussed in more detail on episode 8 of our Just Skeptics podcast, which is available now on iTunes, or you can use the direct link at the bottom of this page. If you like this blog post why not give us a listen? 


When people find out that I'm a skeptic, the most common question I get asked is "what about UFO's then"? Because I'm far too pedantic for my own good I nearly always point out that a UFO is simply an object in the sky which the viewer can't explain - not necessarily an alien space craft that's travelled thousands of light years just to probe our livestock.


This may be a poor answer to the question, but it's still important to note that a UFO is simply an object which the observer cannot explain sufficiently, yet some will leap to their preferred 'supernatural' explanation. Instead of saying "I don't know what that is", they'll assume that it's some kind of alien spacecraft, or secret government aircraft.


Here's an interesting example from Greater Manchester - a UFO sighting from Ardwick, which can also be viewed on YouTube. The poster asks "Is this a UFO? You decide because I'm convinced it is". This statement doesn't make any sense unless by UFO he means something along the lines of 'alien spacecraft'. Taking into account the pictures of aliens, saucers and X-Files music in his video, I'm pretty convinced that he believes it to be an alien craft.  

The Polygraph - Complete Nonsense? (Just Skeptics Episode 6)

For episode 6 of the Just Skeptics podcast we were joined once more by Rick Owen, who talked at great length about lie detectors. You can listen to this episode (and more) by searching iTunes for "Just Skeptics" or by visiting the Just Skeptics blog. He was kind enough to write this accompanying piece for us:

As with my rant in episode 2, my soap-box session on episode 6 of the Just Skeptics could have gone on for hours, and there are so many more things that could be said about it. I’m not going to give you a full transcript of the podcast, you will have listen to the podcast, but here are some extra points.

As I mention, polygraph operators are “trained”, even certified. In some states they may even enjoy the tacit government approval of needing to be licensed. But this training can be completed in 7-12 weeks. That’s not a lot for a thorough understanding of the human mind under stressful conditions, and the ability to tease out genuine deception from the other possibly causes of stress during the polygraph examination.

Ramblings on Patriotism (1)

It’s time once again for the FIFA World Cup, and yet again the streets of Manchester are awash with St. George’s crosses – and once more the only reaction I can muster is a feeling of intense befuddlement.

Your regular garden variety patriotism I can just about grasp – while I disagree with the idea I can almost, (but not quite) understand it. If the people with the cheap flags bolted to their cars also had full sized flagpoles in their yards which they attended to every morning and evening with chocked throats and tears welling, then I could understand a vast outpouring of pride every four years. I’d still think it was utterly ridiculous, but I'd at least note their consistency.

That’s not the case though – the people who’ve picked up cheap flags from the local supermarket for the duration of the world cup stay away from this more “American” style of patriotism – if they’re at all patriotic for the rest of the time, then it’s a crafty new form of patriotism – a ‘stealth patriotism’.

Gambling Systems (Extra Soapbox)

This week on the Just Skeptics podcast we were joined by Rick Owen, who talked at great length about common fallacies encountered whilst gambling. He was kind enough to write this accompanying piece for us:


On my guest slot on episode 2 of the Just Skeptics podcast I talk about gambling superstitions and scam systems. Without repeating the podcast spot (you'll have to listen to it), I thought I would expand on a couple of points and include some weblinks.

You can see the free roulette system here. In the podcast I talk about the Martingale system, wherein your stake is doubled after each loss (on 1 to 1 odds like a coin-toss). The problem is that exponential growth gets very big very quickly. If you have infinite money you should be okay. The system on the website is actually a split Martingale system, or Labouchère system : a more gradual increase in stakes, but still doomed. These systems are especially risky in real casinos where each table has a minimum and maximum bet, so you will quickly run up against the table maximum and your system will crash.